Eye on the World

U.S. frustration with Mexico may be growing

Mexdata has a detailed summary of the increased level of violence in Mexico as a result of the drug cartel wars

Guerrero Governor Zeferino Torreblanca Galindo is now calling for the Mexican federal government to help him fight back.  Torreblanca has reported that the gangs killed more than 20 people in the resort area over the last year, with four execution-style killings on August 10, 2005, alone.  But it seems the governor is more mindful of tourism implications, as he says that he “wants police, not soldiers” on the streets so as not to scare off some 1.5 million visitors that include many Americans.

Meanwhile, back in Nuevo Laredo the drug war continues without the usual details as journalists have stopped investigating and reporting.  Many of their colleagues have been killed and threatened.  Daniel Rosa, the managing editor of the daily El Mañana in Nuevo Laredo said: “It is the new trend of drug gangs — journalists are warned, paid off, or killed.”  The editor of El Mañana, Roberto Garcia, was stabbed to death on March 19, 2004.

The journalists complain that corruption makes it impossible for them to research their stories accurately.  Yet more serious, the reporters note that Tamaulipas is the most dangerous place to work in Mexico.  Since January there have been at least 108 execution-style murders, whereas over the last year 173 people have disappeared, including 23 still missing Americans.

In February a reporter with the Televisa TV network was gunned down after airing a report on the paramilitary group known as the Zetas.  The Zetas were accused of involvement in the disappearances of both Mexicans and Americans in Nuevo Laredo, but the TV coup-de-grace probably came when the broadcaster said municipal police back the Zetas, and that they have an informant in the Mexican Army.   

Nearly 1,000 soldiers, federal agents and police were sent to the border in Nuevo Laredo in June, a show of force that left a current legacy of 50 new killings, bringing the body count to 110.

Claims of corruption taint Mexican president

Mexidata discusses the recent publication of a book that claims to document unusual deals and benefits received by Mexico's President and his family

The feelings of disgust picked up momentum this month with the launch of the book “The Presidential Family.”

It excoriates the President and his wife, Marta Sahagun, for abusing the perks of office to raise their private living standards and those of their many children and siblings. 

The authors conclude that much of this must have taken place courtesy of the taxpayer or the largesse of wealthy friends who had government contracts.

The authors, Anabel Hernandez and Areli Quintero, are Mexican journalists who have obviously done homework that goes far beyond day-to-day reportage on the presidency.

The book recounts detailed expenditures on Fox’s properties and generous spillovers to relatives and supporters. 25 annexes of documents buttress its allegations.

Rio de Janeiro Proposes to Build Wall around Violent Neighborhoods

Continuing violence in Rio de Janeiro has resulted in a proposal to build a wall around the most crime-infested neighborhoods.

The government of Rio de Janeiro state yesterday proposed to build a wall around its sprawling favelas in an effort to help control rampant crime in the picture postcard city. "The wall won't put an end to violence [in the slums] but if we don't contain it, it will destroy the [surrounding] forest, the economy of Rio de Janeiro and the lives of the city's residents," Luiz Paulo Conde, deputy governor, said on Monday. The proposal comes after yet another wave of violence rocked parts of the city during the Easter holidays, shutting down commerce, and killing 10 people, including civilians, police and gang members.

The Castaneda factor in the Mexican presidential equation

C. Luken provides additonal details on the new dynamics of Mexico's presidential election with the presence of Mexico's Nader

Castañeda’s candidacy is exceptional as he is a self-nominee. A leftwing independent outsider, Castañeda has never been elected to public office, and while he describes himself as a “civilian candidate” Castañeda is discarding the support of Mexico’s big three parties — who he accuses of kidnapping democracy.

As well, in a recent interview Castañeda insisted he would not be a fourth party alternative, but rather the first non-party option. However this is contrary to Mexico’s electoral law that gives registered parties alone the right to nominate candidates for election.

Castañeda is now seeking court action to block the registered party provision, however if he is unsuccessful smaller parties can be expected to beat a path to his door. This will be especially true if congress passes anticipated electoral reforms, as one proposal calls for the current 2 percent requisite for a party to keep its registry to go to 4 or maybe 5 percent. By himself Castañeda can be expected to bring a party that percentage minimum.

Brazilian Efforts at Progress Are Mired in Political Scandal

In a situation reminiscent of the ongoing video corruption scandals in Mexico, the Brazilian government is mired in a video corruption scandal of its own, which threatens to paralyze ongoing policy initiatives.

A widening corruption scandal in Brazil has all but immobilized the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose support was already eroding because of the weak performance of the economy during his first year in office.

The crisis began in mid-February when Waldomiro Diniz, then the president's liaison to Congress, was seen on a two-year-old videotape apparently soliciting hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from the boss of an illegal numbers game in return for political favors. A government report issued in late March acknowledged that such "administrative improprieties" had continued after the left-leaning Workers' Party took power last year.

In parallel, Brazil is refusing to allow U.N. nuclear inspectors to examine a facility for enriching uranium under construction near Rio de Janeiro

Brazil maintains that the facility will produce low-enriched uranium for use in power plants, not the highly enriched material used in nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, Brazil refuses to let IAEA inspectors see equipment in the plant, citing a need to protect proprietary information.

The diplomatic standoff plays into fears that a new type of nuclear race is underway, marked not by the bold pursuit of atomic weapons but by the quiet and lawful development of sophisticated technology for nuclear energy production, which can be quickly converted into a weapons program.

and staying with the Brazil theme, this news report is unusual

Rabies-carrying vampire bats killed at least 13 people in a remote Amazon town in Brazil's northern state of Para last month, authorities said on Friday The state health care department said the thumb-sized creatures had attacked about 300 people -- an unusually high number -- since March 2 in the riverside Portel area, next to the world's biggest estuarine archipelago of Marajo

Change in Brazil

J. Power describes the situation in Brazil one year after Lula's election

If Brazil has long lived out its personal fantasy as the archetypal relaxed, tolerant and gregarious country with Copacabana beach, the samba, the carnival and a great deal of sexual freedom it is now living out in real time its almost forgotten societal dream, an economic-cum-social revolution. But with a government led by a former lathe worker and union leader, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is determined to beat the metal of his country into shape as he once did the cars and workers in his Sao Paulo car factory, it has a clear and active agenda- fiscal discipline first, more than ever before, economic growth second, and third, a commitment with the Zero Hunger program, to give everyone three meals a day and a chance to move up.

However, the policies of fiscal discipline are creating opposition from Brazil's private sector

Lula's economic policy in his first year in office made all the sense in the world," Mr. Lima said. "Inflation was verging on 30 percent, and the real was way over 3.60 to the dollar.

"But now," he said, "with the country showing negative growth and inflation at a completely acceptable level, it seems to me that insisting on high interest rates and a strong real won't do anything to get the economy rolling again and create jobs."

Mexico's Nader

Former Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda has announced his intention to run for Mexico's Presidency as an independent. This is no previous history in Mexican politics of strong independent presidential canditates, but Castaneda's name recognition will add a huge level of unpredictability to the upcoming presidential elections.

"There is a huge party of people out there who don't identify with any party, and they are angry, they are disappointed and they are disgusted with the three large existing parties," said Castaneda, who is running as an independent.

Argentina and Brazil Join Forces Against the IMF

David DeRosa discusses the recent aliance between Argentina and Brazil to extract more concessions from the IMF.

In yet another affront to the authority of the International Monetary Fund, Argentina and Brazil have agreed to stand as one in future negotiations over loan conditions. The Fund is being eviscerated by two of the very countries it has staked its reputation on when it rescued them from financial collapse. In effect, Brazil and Argentina are acting as if they have an entitlement to borrow billions of dollars from the IMF on terms of their choosing. Earlier this month, Argentina successfully negotiated a $3.1 billion loan disbursement by threatening not to make a loan service payment of the same size to the Fund. The Fund gave in; Argentina made the payment and the Fund promptly agreed to return the billions to Argentina. What Argentina learned from that episode is that the IMF is a low-pain-threshold creditor when it comes to its clients threatening it with default. This happens when the lender of last resort, the IMF, is afraid of its own shadow.

Elections do not a Democracy Make

The International Herald Tribune has an outstanding article detailing on how the fact that a country has elections does not mean that a democracy exists. Regular readers of this page recall a previous post regarding the fraud during Mexico's presidential elections of 1988. The IHT reviews the elections in Iran and Russia and how elections are not the main factors that define a democracy.

Today, a majority of the world's countries are indeed electoral democracies. At the same time, most countries still are not free, according to the independent institute Freedom House. How to explain this paradox? Democracy and freedom are not the same. Democracy is the ability to choose one's leaders in elections. Freedom is the ability to exercise one's personal, political and economic rights. . The democratic ideal may be universal, but history reveals that democracy is a luxury. A country can afford democracy only after it fulfills the most basic needs of its citizens, especially their economic security.

Update: D. Duquenal discusses the upcoming local elections in Venezuela in a similar context.

Update: The Arab newspaper Dar Al Hayat challenges arab governments to implement democratic changes after they failed to agree on political reforms at the Arab summitt.

Reform is an integral political operation that guarantees the rights of both women and men. At the economic level, it means fighting corruption and promoting transparency, accountability and equal opportunities. At the social level, it means the reform of education and the rein of democracy.

Arab governments refused the suggested projects without having one of their own. Why didn't we talk about reform in the adequate time? Is not timing an important factor for reform? Delaying the date renders reform impossible; this is maybe why our governments find difficulty to start it. Their positions in the future might be even more difficult because they are still hesitating.

Hesitation is one of the desperation factors to start reform from inside, which opens the door wide for foreign projects. We refuse every foreign project, but foreign countries would not have intervened in our issues if we did something. Democracy is not scaring, for this is how our leaders look at it. Ballots are one of its aspects. Democracy is a complex operation that concerns the entire civil community institutions. It is fighting corruption, protecting human rights, establishing the state of institutions, and freedom of expression.

The Palestinian cause has always been used as a pretext to postpone reforms. But the truth is that nothing harms the Palestinian cause more than the violation of human rights, marginalizing the role of the Arab citizen, and widening the gap between rulers and people. Would Arab human rights be protected, and the citizen free to express himself, the world wouldn't consider Israel an oasis of democracy within Arab totalitarian regimes.

Turmoil in Venezuela

The recent events in Spain and the Middle East have resulted in a lack of attention on the turmoil in Venezuela, where President Chavez is fighting a recall referendum

Even though one chamber of the Venezuelan Supreme Court overturned a decision by his government to disqualify more than 800,000 signatures on Monday, Mr. Chávez is pressing his case with another chamber of the court. Opposition leaders say their efforts have managed to keep Mr. Chávez in check. But the cost has been high. Venezuelan soldiers and policemen killed nine people and tortured others during a week of protests this month by opposition groups supporting the recall, according to the New York-based Human Rights Watch.

Additional reports on human rights violations in Venezuela can be found here

The Miami Herald reports that

Government opponents see a recall as their last chance to remove Chavez, whom they accuse of becoming authoritarian and ruining the economy, before the next presidential election in 2006. Supporters claim Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000, is working hard to bring social justice to the poor majority. If the recall petition is rejected, Chavez foes say the world's No. 5 oil exporter could plunge into chaos. Chavez warns that his removal by undemocratic means could bring civil war.

this conflict may bring further pressure on the price of oil in the world markets.